AccuWeather: Tropical storm could become major hurricane in coming days
Cheryl McCloud,Kim LucianiUSA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
Show Caption
- Spaghetti models show Tropical Storm Ernesto staying east of Florida, US
- Florida impacts expected as of now include rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
A week after Hurricane Debby made landfall on Florida's Big Bend, a new tropical storm developed in the Atlantic.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five strengthened to become Tropical Storm Ernesto Monday afternoon as it approaches the Leeward Islands, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
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Current projections have the fast-moving storm becoming a hurricane by Thursday morning. And while Ernesto is not tracking toward Florida, experts say continue to be prepare for this busy hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center NOAA hurricane hunters are investigating the disturbance.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for much of the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
AccuWeather forecasters said Tropical Storm Ernesto "could rapidly organize" to become the basin's next major hurricane in the coming days as it sweeps through the Caribbean.
"By the middle of this week, forecasters warn that this feature could ramp up to at least a Category 1 hurricane as it travels across the warm waters of the far northeastern Caribbean Sea and shifts north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola" and has the potential to ramp up into a major hurricane.
A major hurricane is one with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, making it at least a Category 3 storm.
Current forecasts and models predict the storm will curve north in the Atlantic, staying east of Florida and the U.S.
Tropical Storm Ernesto: What you need to know
- Location: 295 miles east-southeast of Antigua; 590miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico
- Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
- Movement: west at 28 mph
- Pressure: 1,009 mb
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Watches, warnings issued across Florida
No watches or warnings connected to Tropical Storm Ernesto have been issued for Florida.
The National Hurricane Center has issued the following watches:
Tropical storm warning:
- St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
- Guadeloupe
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
- Sint Maarten
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques
- Culebra
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
How strong is Tropical Storm Ernesto and where is it going?
At 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 57.5 West.
Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph. A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Ernesto
Special note about spaghetti models:Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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Predicted impact on Florida from Tropical Storm Ernesto
"Currently, the weather along the southeastern U.S. coast looks fairly nice this weekend, so even if the storm remains well offshore, coastal impacts such as rough surf and rip currents could spell trouble for beach-goers trying to soak up the last weekends of summer," said AccuWeatherMeteorologist Emma Belscher.
An impact on Florida, the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. depends on steering winds in the atmosphere, AccuWeather said.
While the storm is expected to take a track toward Bermuda, if its takes a bit more of a southern track initially, it could be pushed closer the East Coast, Belscher said.
Late this week, Florida could see rough surf, strong rip currents and dangerous seas, according to AccuWeather.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Ernesto
- Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday and to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for this entire area.
- Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.
- It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Current forecast: How strong could Potential Tropical Cyclone Five get?
- At 5 p.m.: 40 mph
- 12 hours: 45 mph
- 24 hours: 50 mph
- 36 hours: 60 mph
- 48 hours: 70 mph
- 60 hours: 80 mph
- 72 hours: 90 mph
- 96 hours: 110 mph
- 120 hours: 110 mph:
What impact could Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 have and what areas could be affected?
- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
- Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches
- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
- STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
- SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves:
- First wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is located over the Cabo Verde Islands. It's moving west at 5-11 mph.
- Second wave: Another tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean stretches from Cuba into Panama.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be avery active hurricane season.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph arepossiblewithin the specified area within 48 hours in association with atropical,subtropical, orpost-tropicalcyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
